Nhu cầu tiêu thụ tăng cao, vận tải biển gặp khó khăn, khan hiếm container rỗng để xếp hàng… là những nguyên nhân chính dẫn đến giá cả các loại giấy thu hồi (RCP), bột giấy nhập khẩu về thị trường Đông Nam Á tăng mạnh trong thời gian qua.
Trung Quốc chính thức cấm nhập khẩu RCP từ đầu năm 2021 và có nhu cầu rất lớn về giấy bao bì công nghiệp cũng là nguyên nhân để các nước trong khu vực gia tăng mua vào RCP, sản xuất bột giấy tái chế và giấy bao bì công nghiệp xuất khẩu vào Trung Quốc, chính điều này càng làm cho giá RCP nhập khẩu tại khu vực tăng mạnh hơn nữa. VPPA tổng hợp tình hình thị trường bột giấy, giấy thu hồi và đưa ra một số nhận định ngắn hạn nhằm cung cấp một số thông tin tham khảo cho bạn đọc và các doanh nghiệp hội viên.
Pulp
From the time of December 2020, the price of pulp has fluctuated continuously, depending on the type of pulp. Compared to the same period in March 2020, by March 2021, the price of pulp of all kinds increased from 34.7% to 65%, specifically, each major pulp traded in China and Southeast Asian countries, as follows:
Thermomechanical pulp (BCTMP), March 2021 is trading at 630 - 650 USD / ton, the average is 640 USD / ton, the price has increased 42.2% (190 USD / ton) compared to the month. 12/2020 and increased 34.7% over the same period last year;
Chemical pulp bleaching eucalyptus (BEKP), March 2021 is trading at 710 - 730 USD / ton, the average is 720 USD / ton, the price has increased 56.5% (260 USD / ton) compared with December 2020 and increased 56.5% over the same period last year;
Softwood bleaching chemical pulp (BSKP): for the northern pulp (NBSKP), in March 2021, the transaction rate was 906 USD / ton, an increase of 30.2% (285 USD / ton) compared to December / 2020 and 57.6% increase over the same period last year. Southern softwood pulp (SBSKP), in March 2021 traded at 880 - 900 USD / ton, the average price of 890 USD / ton increased by 48.3% (290 USD / ton) compared to December / 2020 and increase 55.5% over the same period last year (See figure 1).
Figure 1: Imported pulp prices in China and Southeast Asia as of March 2021 (unit: USD / ton, CIF)
A number of important factors driving the fluctuation of pulp prices in recent times: (1) In the fourth quarter of 2020, when the production ratio of printing paper, coated writing paper and not Coating has rebounded globally, stimulating an increase in pulp consumption in the global pulp market, (2) Increasing demand for original pulp as an alternative to selected office grade paper (SOP ) to make tissue paper, (3) demand for pulp in China surged for printing, writing, tissue and coated paper production, (4) global pulp supply dropped sharply in the quarter 4/2020 and Q1 / 2021 due to about 2.5 million tons of pulp from old factories and high production costs to close and a series of large factories stopped long-term maintenance. such as unexpected stops due to equipment failures in North America, (5) lack of empty containers for loading and rising ocean freight rates globally.
Recovered paper (paper scrap)
From October 2020 to March 2021, recovered paper prices also increased strongly and continuously, from 41.1 to 63.8% depending on type and origin, as follows:
OCC type paper (11) from the US, in March 2021 is trading at 215 - 280 USD / ton, the average is 248 USD / ton, an increase of 49.4% (89 USD / ton) compared to October. / 2020 and increase 73.7% over the same period last year (See figure 2).
OCC 95/10 paper from Europe, to March 2021 is trading at 230 –275 USD / ton, the average is 263 USD / ton, up 63.8% compared to October 2020 and 129 , 5% (111 USD / ton) compared with the same period last year;
OCC paper from Japan, to March 2021 is trading at 240 - 245 USD / ton, an average of 243 USD / ton, an increase of 41.1% (72 USD / ton) compared to October 2021 and increased 115.6% over the same period; \
Figure 2: Import OCC prices in Southeast Asia as of March 2021 (unit: USD / ton, CIF)
Some motivating factors for the price of recovered paper to increase and continue to rise: (1) in the last 6 months of 2020, the consumption of top and corrugated packaging paper decreases in North America and Europe, but production packaging paper increased and the demand for recovered paper as raw materials for production increased, (2) Due to the impact of the COvid-19 epidemic, the rate of recovered paper in the world fell sharply, especially in North America and Europe due to prolonged social gaps, (3) Production of top layers and corrugated sheets from recovered paper increased sharply, (4) lack of empty containers and increased ocean freight continues from the end of the fourth quarter of 2020 up to now.
Comment on the trend of pulp and recovered paper prices in the second quarter of 2021 in Asia
Pulp prices will continue to increase strongly and continuously in the end of the first quarter and in the second quarter of 2021, softwood bleaching chemical pulp (BSKP) can be set at a price of> 1,000 USD / ton, chemical pulp Hardwood bleaching school (BHKP) can be set at prices> 900 USD / ton and this price can be maintained by the end of 2021, some of the factors driving this price increase:
- Firstly, in 2020, many factories are closed, so global output of bleached chemical pulp will be cut by over 2.5 million tons, so the supply is in short for 2021;
- Second, there will be about half of the machines out of the total high capacity pulp mills in South America with a 10 - 15 day long maintenance plan in the end of the first quarter and the beginning of the second quarter of 2021, after the period. over years of continuous running (2020). In addition, pulp mills in North America and Europe shut down maintenance machines during winter time;
- Thirdly, it is expected that paper production and consumption demand are forecast to grow more than 2% in 2021 (a decrease of about 5.8% in 2020 compared to 2019), which will lead to a sharp increase in pulp demand;
- Fourth, demand for pulp in 2021 is expected to increase about 1.2 million tonnes, but new supply is not there;
- Fifth, the lack of empty containers and sea freight rates are still high, even getting worse in the second quarter of 2021, when the global economy is showing signs of strong growth again.
The price of recovered paper (paper scrap) will remain high as at present and may still increase slightly, some factors driving this are as follows:
- Firstly, the demand for recovered paper for the production of recycled pulp and for the production of industrial packaging paper tends to increase when the pulp price is setting an all-time high for pulp. bleached soft wood;
- Second, in 2021, industrial packaging paper production capacity from recovered paper is expected to increase by more than 3.5 million tons in Asia (excluding China), 2.6 million tons in Western Europe, about 1.6 million tons in North America and about 1.0 million tons in South America, while by 2020 the global output will decrease by about 5.0 million tons;
- Thirdly, China has officially no longer imported recovered paper, but the new production capacity of industrial packaging paper (surface paper and corrugated layer) from recovered paper and recycled pulp in 2021 is expected. an increase of about 3.0 million tons, while the domestic collection rate does not meet, so China has to increase the import of recycled pulp from India and other Asian countries;
- Fourthly, in 2021, the global recovery rate of recovered paper will increase more than 2020, but it has not yet re-established the rate of collection as in 2019.
Thus, based on the above factors affecting the market, production and consumption of pulp and recovered paper materials. The Editorial Board of Paper Industry has stated that, the price of pulp and recovered paper imported to Asia and Southeast Asia will fluctuate slightly in the near future, and will be heavily dependent on empty containers. and ocean freight rates and collection rates in North America and Western Europe.
According to VPPA
